Mainstream media is doing everything they can to paint Marco Rubio as the real winner of the 2016 Iowa caucus. They say that his boost in the polls to the point of nearly beating Donald Trump for second is more impressive than Ted Cruz’s victory because they say that Cruz was expected to win.
This is funny for anyone paying enough attention because the people who are saying that Cruz was expected to win were saying in the days leading up to the caucus that Trump would win. This is all about crafting the narrative and the left-wing mainstream media is so against a Cruz nomination that would lead to a Clinton defeat that they’ll do anything to take attention away from him.
It will work in the polls. Expect Rubio to rise dramatically, particularly in New Hampshire where he’s behind Trump, Cruz, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich. He should go into the New Hampshire primary second or third in the polls and he will outperform his poll numbers. It’s not inconceivable that he could win New Hampshire, but Trump has a commanding lead. We’ll have to see if he implodes.
For Cruz, he’ll be fighting to stay in the news in a positive way. Don’t worry – he’ll be in the news. However, it won’t be positive. They will tear him down. They will highlight Trump’s upcoming attacks. They will paint Rubio as the new Establishment darling who could actually beat the two upstart insurgents. Most major news outlets, particularly Fox News, will start looking at the “blue state advantage” that Rubio has in the more moderate winner-take-all primaries after the “SEC Primaries” on March 1.
They’ll do whatever they can to make you believe Rubio’s nomination is a foregone conclusion.
Cruz will rise as well, though not necessarily in the polls. His rise will be with his bread and butter: grassroots support. Expect this to be a huge fundraising week for Cruz who has already held the most cash on hand in preparation for the long campaign.
Mike Huckabee has dropped out. Rick Santorum will likely drop out soon. Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina will probably stay in longer, though Paul is now facing competition for his Senate seat and the schedule doesn’t favor him. He really needed 7% in Iowa to stay viable and he didn’t get 5%, but he’s a fighter. I imagine him staying in a bit longer, but he might not. Fiorina has nothing to lose and will go on to New Hampshire. Her end game is a nice cabinet position for any non-Trump winner with an outside chance of a VP tap if she can get some actual voters on her side.
The moderate candidates who are putting all of their eggs in the New Hampshire basket – Bush, Kasich, and Chris Christie – will probably be down one of them after New Hampshire. Bush is the least likely, but if he fails miserably it’s not out of the question. Between Kasich and Christie who each have states to run, the one who under-performs the most relative to the polls will probably get out before South Carolina.
That leaves Ben Carson. He’s an enigma. His campaign is falling apart but he did fairly well in Iowa, outperforming his poll numbers slightly. However, he announced that he would be leaving the trail to go home for a change of clothes. Seriously. This doesn’t sound like a man who needs R&R. It sounds like someone who is out of money and needs to not pay expenses for campaign events leading up to New Hampshire. We’ll watch closely, but he seems to be in trouble.
In the end, Cruz had the best night despite the media’s storytelling that Rubio did. Both will rise in different ways. The only wildcard at the top is whether Trump can take the punch or if he has a glass jaw.