Weather can change on a dime despite what climate change alarmists want to admit, but at this point the forecast for much of Iowa on Caucus day, February 1, appears like it’s going to be a factor. With temperatures at or just above freezing in most of Iowa with snow or rain forecast in some areas including Des Moines, it’s not going to be ideal conditions to get out and support the candidates. Will this have an influence on the vote?
It most likely will. It doesn’t matter how familiar Iowans are with caucus weather. It takes a bit more passion to push someone over the edge in their decision to travel. The real question is how that passion will manifest for each candidate.
We can classify them into groups to really get a feel. Bad weather will favor those who have the best chance of winning, namely Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio. For the moderate who are way behind – Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Chris Christie – there may be enough of an anti-Trump/Cruz fervor to make the trek. For the conservatives at the bottom of the pack – Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee – the vote would be mostly symbolic so they could be hurt the most. Carly Fiorina’s fans fall into the same category as the bottom conservatives.
This leaves the wild cars – Rand Paul. His followers have the same type of passion as supporters for the frontrunners for a different reason. To many, he’s their only choice, so representing him even though he’s polling so poorly might become a rallying cry. In other words, the bad weather might actually benefit him more than the frontrunners. I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see Paul in the top four even if he’s polling lower.
The other wildcard is Trump’s real support. In the polls, he’s doing well, but he has replaced a valid ground game with the assumption that he’s going to bring in a multitude of new voters to the mix. Experienced caucus participants are less likely to be scared away by the weather. For the newcomers, they may decide to pass this time, particularly with Trump’s poll numbers being as good as they are. In other words, they might get complacent.
The reality is that weather can reduce the overall attendance at caucus in normal years, but if there was a time when it could be dismissed as a factor, this is it.