If one would have inquired last year about the NATO member that Russia liked the most, it would have been Turkey. They’re not only heavy trade partners, but they share a disdain politically for many of the western practices that the United States and western Europe have adopted. Some might even conclude that Turkey would be the most likely NATO member to leave if Russia was ever able to make a valid offer of protection.
All of that was before the Islamic State and the Syrian civil war pulled Russia into military action in the Middle East. Now, all bets are off and Turkey is now the flashpoint that could draw the world into a much bigger conflict. You see, as part of NATO, Turkey must be defended by all, including the United States. Following the downing of a Russian fighter jet and disagreements over whether the jet entered Turkish airspace or not, the risks of a full-fledged conflict between the countries is suddenly very real.
If Russia attacks Turkey, we will be obligated to help them. It’s a terrifying prospect, particularly when we consider that Russia’s collapsing economy can likely only be saved by the specter of war with the west.
In the post-Cold-War era, there has never been a more tangible potential for the United States and Russia to engage in military conflict. Even when tensions were high over Ukraine, it was assumed that sanctions from the west and threats from President Vladimir Putin would be the extent of the conflict and that proved to be true so far. With Turkey, there’s now a real threat of combat.
We aren’t just obligated by our NATO connection. There’s a strategic value to Turkey that Russia has been courting for years. They are strong trade partners but more importantly they control the Black Sea. If they go to war, it wouldn’t simply be over a downed plane. It would be for strategic reasons in an effort to consolidate power for Putin and inflate the patriotism of the Russian people. The country is desperate. Putin is even more desperate. This won’t end well for anyone if this escalates and at this point the United States seems to be unable to sway that potential one way or the other.
Turkey must be protected at all costs, but war with Russia must also be avoided at all costs. If this explodes, it wouldn’t just be the Syrian branch of the Russian military against their border opponents in Turkey. Escalation could be the beginning of World War III.