Every time Ted Cruz makes a great stride in the polls or receives a key endorsement, the news is focused on the latest sound bite from Donald Trump. For most campaigns, this would be seen as a bad thing. For Cruz, it’s all part of the plan.
Unlike Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson, Cruz does not have to rely on national buzz to pick up real voters. The grassroots efforts that support him are the most powerful in the country. Despite being ideologically similar to Trump, his campaign acts as a perfect foil. Trump gets the headlines. Cruz gets put on page two. That’s exactly what both campaigns want.
Even though Cruz is arguably best equipped to win the general election, the primary is a challenge for him. It was always going to be the hardest part of his campaign to convince Republican voters that he’s an electable conservative who is in Washington DC but not part of the “Washington Cartel” that controls the leaders in both parties.
Donald Trump is the ultimate smokescreen for him. While he continues to pick up real voters (as compared to polling “voters” who will answer a phone survey but who won’t make it out to vote in the primaries and caucuses), Trump is keeping the frontrunner tag all to himself. As a result, he’s getting the brunt of the attacks from both the Republican Establishment and the left-leaning mainstream media. Cruz is quietly positioning himself to pick up the early electoral votes in Iowa and South Carolina. This will propel him through Super Tuesday in a way that should have him as the frontrunner after March 1.
In short, Donald Trump is the best thing that ever happened to Ted Cruz’s campaign.
There’s a problem, of course. With Trump leading, he may be able to build up enough of a lead to challenge Cruz. Then, there’s Rubio, who may be able to garner enough support to grab the moderate voters while Trump and Cruz split the conservatives.
With Texas, Oklahoma, and other southern states so early in the primary season for the first time in many election cycles, Cruz is exceptionally well positioned to take an early delegate lead. Trump’s path to victory is to bulldoze everyone and run the table. Cruz will rely on his grassroots organization to take charge. Rubio will hope that moderates won’t trust either of them.
With less than two months to go, the picture isn’t much clearer than it was six months ago. The only real answer we have is that the final three will likely be Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. How that pans out will not be clear until April at the earliest.