It’s very easy to look at the pool of candidates running for the GOP nomination for President and assume that it’s a wide open race. The reality is this: there are only four candidates who have valid chances of getting the nomination. Everyone else is just a distraction and they’re taking away from the real candidates’ ability to generate the funds necessary to beat the Democrats in 2016.
There are three valid arguments to point to when saying that it’s still an open race:
- This early on, anything can happen.
- Polls don’t really mean much at this stage.
- Once the primaries start, some of the lower candidates will have a chance of moving up.
Yes, yes, we agree. However, there’s a difference with this year’s election. Very little is happening the way that the pundits believed. Donald Trump shouldn’t have made it out of July or August with a lead if you were to listen to the pundits. Ben Carson should have fallen off this month based upon controversial statements similar to Michele Bachmann in 2011 if conventional wisdom were applied. Marco Rubio doesn’t have the credentials to make a run as the establishment’s choice, but he’s shaping up to be just that. Ted Cruz is too conservative to be the nominee based upon every left-wing publication in existence, but his position is looking more and more solid.
Throw all conventional wisdom out the window and look at the way things are going to pan out. Let’s look at Jeb Bush, first. His massive war chest and super PAC support will not be enough to save him. He’s promising a win in New Hampshire and he might be able to deliver. The problem is that it will be the only state he wins. After Super Tuesday on March 1, he’ll be DOA.
Look at this chart to see why the others will not be involved in the long term. You have three candidates rising (Carson, Rubio, and Cruz) and one candidate holding steady (Trump). The guy who pundits said wouldn’t make it out of July or August has been the only one over 20% since their predetermined death period for him. Carly Fiorina had he bump and is now fading. John Kasich took his best shot at the last debate and it fell flat. Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Chris Christie are on campaign life support. Those who aren’t showing on the list should have dropped out long ago.
The final four has been determined.
- Donald Trump: He’s here to stay. Those who thought he would fade at any point didn’t understand that the modern electorate has been so Obamatized that anyone resembling a milquetoast Mitt Romney or PC John McCain will be run out of town. Republicans want a fighter.
- Ben Carson: At this point, it’s clear that nothing he can say will diminish the support from his faithful. People like him. He’s a guy that saves lives and it will take outside forces to bring him down. Thankfully for his campaign, he likely won’t be brought down until well into the primaries.
- Marco Rubio: He might be more conservative than the Republican Establishment wants him to be, but he’s moderate in all the right places. That’s enough to get him the most endorsements by far among the final four GOP candidates. He’s the establishment’s only hope.
- Ted Cruz: They say he’s not likable. They say he’s not moderate enough. They say he can’t win. What nobody says is that he’s not brilliant and it’s been showing in his campaign. No candidate has run a better campaign, raised money more efficiently, or spent money more wisely than the Cruz campaign. They say he’s positioned to pick up support when Trump, Carson, or both drop out. I would say that he has a great chance even when they don’t drop out.
There are four GOP candidates who can win the nomination. Everyone else is a distraction. The sooner they realize this fact, the easier it will be for the party to select its candidate and focus on beating the Democrats.