The key to any Presidential general election is staying close in the unfriendly demographics while winning big in the friendly demographics. Donald Trump is doing the exact opposite. He’s trailing in what should be one of his friendliest demographics: white female voters.
When Mitt Romney lost to President Obama in 2012 by 4%, he did so despite fairing well with white female voters beating the President by a 14% margin – 56%-42%. Compare that to Trump’s current status of being viewed favorably by a mere 29% of white females and more importantly losing 68% of them who now view him unfavorably. The chances of this reversing before the general election if he’s the nominee is slim, especially considering that his likely opponent would be a white female.
'Historically, I can’t imagine anyone having worse numbers with women,' says one pollster https://t.co/KrkViaDW6S
— POLITICO (@politico) April 1, 2016
If there’s any silver lining, it’s that it probably can’t get any worse. With him polling as much as 20% behind Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head matchup, he can only move up from here. His best bet is to stop taking questions. Every debate, interview, and town hall that he’s spoken at over the last few weeks has resulted in him saying something to alienate himself from voters. When he’s in front of his base, he’s golden. Trump shines when he has a captive audience and a handful of protesters to bash, but once he’s asked questions about policy or opinions he folds like one of his Made in China ties.
I can already see the emails and Facebook comments from white female voters who object to the facts because they’re white females and they support Trump. The poll didn’t generalize; 29% of you support him. However, he needs that number to be closer to 65% by the general election or it’s going to be a bloodbath in favor of the worst Democratic candidate since Michael Dukakis.